Every year, JH Residential attends the Angelou Economic forecast in downtown Austin.

“The annual Economic Forecast event is the largest business event in Austin, Texas, attended by approximately 800 people each year. The audience includes public officials, educators, media, economic analysts, and business executives from Central Texas’ technology, legal, financial, real estate, and services industries.

Angelos Angelou has authored the highly regarded Forecast event since 1984. At the event, Angelos will provide an overview of the Austin economy in 2010, and his projections for 2011 and 2012. Angelos’ forecast will include job growth, population, retail sales, taxes, entrepreneurship, venture capital, technology growth, emerging technologies, and predictions on the real estate markets.”

We are hoping for good news for the Austin area housing market! Find out more information about the annual Austin economic forecast!

On April 5, 2010, HUD changed the up-front mortgage insurance payment on a FHA loan from 1.75% of the loan amount to 2.25%.  They are now planning on cutting the amount of seller concessions allowed from 6% to 3%.  Read the following article to learn how this may affect you in your next home purchase.

FHA plans to halve mortgage loan’s 6% seller concession this summer 

By Kenneth R. Harney
Saturday, May 29, 2010; E01 

One of the key attractions of FHA mortgage financing is going, going — but not quite gone. Sellers and buyers who move fast can still make the most of it. 

Sometime this summer, the Federal Housing Administration plans to slash maximum “seller concessions” from 6 percent of the home price to 3 percent. Seller concession rules allow buyers to look to the property seller to pay for some services and taxes connected with the transaction — loan origination and local transfer fees, appraisals, inspections, closing and escrow costs, among others — though not the down payment. 

Say you’re buying a $200,000 house. If you are using FHA financing under current rules, you can structure the contract so that the seller agrees to pay at settlement all closing costs and even the cost of some needed repairs, up to 6 percent of the price, or $12,000. On a $400,000 house, allowable concessions go to $24,000. That’s huge, especially if you have to struggle to come up with a 3.5 percent down payment and you’re not sure where you’ll find the closing and repair money.

Contrast that with using Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac conventional financing, in which seller concessions generally are limited to 3 percent. For many buyers, the extra negotiating flexibility built into the FHA program makes the choice of programs a no-brainer. 

When FHA officials announced the policy change this year, they said the long-standing 6 percent maximum “exposes the FHA to excess risk by creating incentives to inflate appraised value.” That would occur when sellers agree to pay buyers’ closing and other expenses but merely tack on those costs to the final sale price of the house. Rather than agreeing to a $200,000 price as in the example above with $12,000 worth of concessions, the final contract price of the house would be $212,000. 

If an appraiser did not detect and report the price boost, FHA would be insuring a mortgage on a house worth less than the sale price. In fact, because the rules allowed a 6 percent seller concession and the down payment was 3.5 percent, FHA would be insuring an underwater loan from the start. To limit further possible losses, FHA decided to cut the concessions limit in half. 

In its announcement, the agency said the change would occur in “early summer” after publication of a Federal Register notice and a public comment period. But Lemar C. Wooley, an FHA spokesman, confirmed May 19 that there has been no Federal Register announcement. 

Since public comment periods frequently run for 60 days, followed by a review period, it appears that any start date for the concessions change has slipped to late summer at the earliest. Wooley said in an e-mail that “early summer may be stretching it, but I’m told that we do still expect it this summer.” 

Why does the timing matter? Whatever you might think of FHA’s existing seller-concession rules, the fact remains: Concessions of 6 percent are still allowed and will be until FHA announces they’re not. Buyers and sellers who have a legitimate need to build concessions into their contracts can still do so, but they need to know that the clock is ticking. 

Smart real estate agents and mortgage loan officers are putting out the word: If a home sale deal needs the 6 percent FHA feature, get the contract put together as fast as possible. Abbie Higashi, national designated broker for ZipRealty of Emeryville, Calif., said that she fully understands and supports the FHA move but that until the change takes effect, agents should “do the deals now” if more than 3 percent concessions would help the sale go through. 

Paul Skeens, president of Colonial Mortgage Group in Waldorf, said he is advising loan applicants to request a “good faith estimate” upfront that provides for the seller to pay 100 percent of closing costs and prepaid fees “so that in cases where the buyer doesn’t have much more than the down payment, that’s the only cash they’ll need to close” on an FHA loan before the policy change. 

Skeens said he would prefer that the FHA adopt a “sliding-scale” approach to concessions, with higher concessions allowed on lower-priced homes, and the lowest concessions allowed on high-priced properties. Because closing and loan expenses generally represent a larger percentage of the total transaction on lower-priced houses, he thinks the new 3 percent rule across the board “will have a much heavier impact on the people FHA traditionally has served,” who are buying modestly priced houses and have limited cash.

The April numbers just came out and the Austin real estate market is showing signs of life!  All the major indicators have improved from last year.  Year to date numbers through April show pending sales are up 39.5% and closed sales are up 18.1%.  The average days on the market has decreased 13.6% and the percentage of list price to sales price is up 3.6%.  Home values continue to hold steady on the whole with only slight differences in the median and average sales prices compared to 2009.

See the link below for a more detailed look at your neighborhood.  Not all areas are performing the same, so please let us know if you would like a more in depth market analysis of your home.  If you have been considering moving up to a larger home or different neighborhood, this could be the best time to make the move.  Interests rates continue to be at all time lows and are expected to creep higher by the end of the year and into next year.  Please give us call and we would be glad to assist you with any of your Austin real estate needs.

Austin Area Real Estate Market Update - April 2010

It’s that exciting time of year again, where the 2010 proposed property values have come out.  Being a full-time Austin Realtor, I have a good idea of the fair market value of our home, and I am always curious to see what TCAD (Travis County Appraisal District) is going to do with our home value.  Some years the change in value is in line with the market and other times not.  We protest high property taxes!

If you feel as though your 2010 proposed value is not correct and are considering filing a protest, you may have a new option for filing if you live in Travis County.  Travis County has introduced a new online option for some homeowners to protest property appraisals.   If you are eligible to protest online, you would have received such notice along with the appraised value form.   The general criteria for homeowners with the online option is that their home be valued less than $300,000 and that they are in very homogenous neighborhoods (near similar homes in age, size and condition).

The online system will function similar to the traditional process.  Homeowners will be able to log in to the system and file their protest.  If TCAD decides to offer a settlement, the homeowner has the option to accept or reject it online.  If the offer is rejected, the homeowner will be scheduled for a formal hearing.  The online system should save homeowners both time and money.  Chief Appraiser Patrick Brown hopes that the electronic system will eventually be expanded to all homeowners.

Remember, whether you have the online option or not, the deadline for filing a protest is June 1, 2010.  Please contact us, Joe and Jessica Honegger, if you have any questions regarding your 2010 proposed property values or if you would like assistance with any other real estate need.

Area housing market poised for rebound, firm says

Data suggest home starts have neared bottom as tax credit attracts buyers.

By Shonda Novak

AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF

Published: 8:05 p.m. Monday, Jan. 4, 2010

A bottom is in sight for Central Texas‘ new-home market, with a slow recovery expected this year, according to Residential Strategies Inc., which tracks the housing market.

Builders started 1,389 new homes in the fourth quarter of 2009, down 7.2 percent from the same quarter of 2008, Residential Strategies reported Monday.

By comparison, in the last three months of 2008, starts were down 50 percent from the year-earlier quarter.

The emerging improvement largely stems from a homebuyer tax credit. Congress expanded and extended the credit in late 2009 until June 30 of this year, provided the home is under contract by April 30.

“We view this market performance favorably as indicating that the bottom of the market has been, or will soon be, reached,” said Tommy Tucker, Austin division manager for Residential Strategies.

For all of 2009, builders started 6,784 homes, down 24.6 percent from 2008.

The median new-home price declined to $201,481 in the fourth quarter from $206,888 in the previous quarter, reflecting sales in the lower price ranges spurred by the tax credit as well as “pricing pressure in general as builders continue to reduce their inventory,” Residential Strategies said.

The 2,099 closings were down 8.9 percent from a year earlier, after three quarters of drops greater than 30 percent.

Tucker said the tax credit “will continue to provide a spark for the home building industry through the first half of 2010 as we emerge from these recessionary times.”

Eldon Rude, local director for Metrostudy , a housing research firm, said that “the Austin new-home market will be one of the first markets across the U.S. that shows signs of recovery.”

“Our relatively stable home pricing, minimal levels of available inventory, lower volume of foreclosures and the general resilience of our economy are in sharp contrast to many areas of the country that will be much slower to see recovery in their housing markets,” Rude said Monday

POTENTIAL BORROWER CHANGES:

FHA to Raise FICO Requirements, Reduce Seller Concessions, Increase Premiums and Downpayment

by Jann Swanson

 The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is not, as some have claimed “the next subprime,” according to remarks prepared for presentation to congress this morning by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan.

Secretary Donovan told members of the House Committee on Financial Services that FHA, in spite of actuarial reports that its secondary reserve level has fallen below the required two percent to 0.53 percent of its total insurance-in-force, is capable of withstanding the current economic downturn.  The actuary concluded Donovan said that FHA’s reserves will remain positive “under all but highly severe economic scenarios.”

He said that HUD had learned from recent history, “that the market is fragile, and we have to plan for the unexpected.  That uncertainty is complicated by an organization we inherited that, to be honest, was simply not properly managing or monitoring its risk.  Credit and risk controls were antiquated.  Enforcement was weak.  And our personnel resources and IT systems were inadequate.

“Little of this may have been obvious when FHA’s market share was 3 percent as recently as 2006.  But when our mortgage markets collapsed last fall, and homebuyers increasingly turned to the FHA for help, the potential consequences of these lapses in risk management became very clear.”

His department, he said, is in the process of drafting new policies to address the quality of FHA’s current portfolio, improve the performance of future loans, and restore the capital reserve above its mandated levels. 

The agency is looking at several measures to improve the quality of its portfolio going forward.  It plans to reduce the maximum permissible seller concession from 6 percent to 3 percent because the current level exposes the FHA to excessive risk by creating incentives to inflate appraised values.  The change, he said, will bring FHA into line with industry norms and even further reductions may be considered.

The minimum borrower FICO score will be raised although the final number has not yet been determined.  The agency is studying whether new FICO minimums should be accompanied by changes in other underwriting criteria for lower down payment loans.

The up-front cash that a borrower will be required to bring to the table for an FHA-backed loan will also be increased to make sure that borrowers have “skin in the game.”  The exact way this will be accomplished is still under study.

These proposed changes, Donovan said, only require administrative decisions on the part of HUD, however, Congress will be asked to pass legislation to increase premiums.  The current up-front premium of 1.75 percent is below the statutory cap of 3 percent but the annual premium is at the maximum.  Raising premiums, he said, is the most effective means of raising capital for the reserve fund with the least impact per borrower.
 
Donovan said that more than 71 percent of the future losses the FHA is anticipating will come from loans already on its books, so, as MortgageNewsDaily reported on Monday, the agency is taking steps to enforce lender accountability.  Donovan said that, in addition to holding lenders responsible for their origination quality and compliance and increasing reviews of that compliance, lenders will be required to indemnify the FHA for losses resulting from their failures to meet FHA requirements and will be sanctioned nationally for any improper activities rather than through the FHA’s current policy of sanctioning individual branches.

The secretary reported that the anticipated changes are merely the latest in a series of improvements FHA has made to shore up its lending activities. 

·                         In 2008, Congress put an end to the practices that led to the most troubled loans in FHA’s portfolio - so-called “Seller-Financed Downpayment Assistance” loans. Without these loans, Donovan said, the actuary reported that secondary reserves would have remained above the two percent threshold. “This year, we’ve taken several additional steps. We’ve steeply increased enforcement efforts, having suspended seven lenders, including Taylor, Bean and Whitaker and withdrawn FHA-approval for 270 others, including Lend America just this week.”

·                         Credit and risk controls have been tightened. Requirements for the Streamlined Refinance program have been toughened with several improvements to the appraisal process and proposing a rule to increase net worth requirements for all FHA lenders. The latter has just entered the notice and comment period.

·                         The agency has hired a permanent Chief Risk Officer to provide a comprehensive and thorough risk assessment and ensure that the assumptions going into the agency’s modeling reflect the most current economic conditions.

·                         FHA is working to increase staffing and technical capacity and upgrade our technology systems and delivered FHA’s first comprehensive technology transformation plan to Congress in September.

The Secretary detailed the active role that FHA is taking in the current housing market, insuring almost 30 percent of purchases and 20 percent of refinances in the housing market, and financing the majority of minority home purchases.  But, he said, “as important as the FHA is at this moment, I want to emphasize that the elevated role it is playing is temporary - a bridge to economic recovery helping to ensure that mortgage finance remains available until private capital returns.”

POTENTIAL LENDER CHANGES:

 Proposed Changes to Mini Eagle and Full Eagle Lender Approvals

by Tad Hensley

Over the weekend, I received a copy of the proposed HUD changes that will impact correspondent “mini eagles” and mortgagee “full eagles”. 

According to the letter, the changes are aligned with provisions contained in the National Housing Act, as amended by the FHA Modernization Act of 2008.  The letter, date November 30, 2009, provides a comment period of 30 days rather than the normal 60 days.  They’ve put this on fast tract so it can be implemented by the first of the year. 

Two changes jump out at me:increase in net worth requirements from $250,000 to $2,500,000 over a 3 year period. As the letter stated the increase in net worth requirement is to “Strengthening the Capacity of FHA-Approved Mortgagees”.  Existing mortgagees will have time to meet a $1M net worth within a year of enactment, moving to the $2.5 within the 3 year period. 

1. FHA will no longer approve or oversee loan correspondents (mortgage brokers) that originate FHA loans.  The approval and oversight will fall on the mortgagee that sponsors them.  There are certain requirements that mortgagees must adhere to when approving correspondents, but it appears the sponsoring mortgagee will require a process to approve and monitor them.  Another change is correspondents will not have FHA numbers; only the sponsoring mortgagee will have an FHA number.  Therefore, all loan originations will be tracked by the mortgagee’s FHA number. 

2. The other change is the increase in net worth requirements from $250,000 to $2,500,000 over a 3 year period. As the letter stated the increase in net worth requirement is to “Strengthening the Capacity of FHA-Approved Mortgagees”.  Existing mortgagees will have time to meet a $1M net worth within a year of enactment, moving to the $2.5 within the 3 year period. 

Moving to Austin or looking to buy a central Austin home for sale? It has just been made easier!  The Homebuyer Tax Credit is officially extended.  The bill signed by President Obama on November 6^th not only extends the credit, but it also expands it to include current homeowners.  The new credit of $6500 is intended for current homeowners looking to purchase a new primary residence.  The new measures go into effect on December 1, 2009.  A summary of the changes follow:

 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Information

• To qualify the purchaser must not have owned a home in the last 3 years.  Purchaser must owner-occupy the home.
• The tax credit is equal to 10% of the purchase price of the home, not to exceed $8000.
• Qualifying maximum income limits effective on December 1^st, 2009:
                $125,000 Adjusted Gross Income for Individuals
                $225,000 Adjusted Gross Income for Married Couples
• If a taxpayer owes less than the tax credit, the government will send a check for the difference.  If the taxpayer is due a credit, the reimbursement will be the refund due + the tax credit.
• Binding Contract Provision:  To qualify for the tax credit, the purchaser must have a binding contract effective on or before April 30, 2010 with the closing happening before July 1^st, 2010

 Current Homebuyer Tax Credit Information

• To qualify the purchaser must document that their sold home or home being sold was used as a principal residence consecutively for 5 of the last 8 years.  Purchaser must owner-occupy the home.
• The tax credit is equal to 10% of the purchase price of the home, not to exceed $8000.
• Qualifying maximum income limits effective on December 1^st, 2009:
                $125,000 Adjusted Gross Income for Individuals
                $225,000 Adjusted Gross Income for Married Couples
• If a taxpayer owes less than the tax credit, the government will send a check for the difference.  If the taxpayer is due a credit, the reimbursement will be the refund due + the tax credit.
• Binding Contract Provision:  To qualify for the tax credit, the purchaser must have a binding contract effective on or before April 30, 2010 with the closing happening before July 1^st, 2010

Purchasers are eligible to claim the credit on their 2009 or 2010 tax return.  We recommend you discuss the details of how you should file with your CPA.   With these tax credits and the current interest rates, there has never been a better time to purchase a home.  Please contact us to begin your Austin home search.

The rumors have been flying regarding the extension and even possible widening of the homebuyer tax credit. There is no doubt this has had an impact on the housing market here in Austin. We have helped several clients recently purchase homes who would not have purchased a home without the tax credit. I do find it a bit ironic, but as long as Uncle Sam is giving….

JH residential will continue to keep you posted. In the mean time, if you are house hunting, call us! We know how to find our buyers the best house at the best price in the right location. We recently sold a central Austin home in Hyde Park at 85K off the original listing price to a buyer using the first time tax credit!  It is never too early to get expert advice- even if you aren’t looking to buy until the spring. Please call Joe at  512-497-9252.

Here is an article that breaks it down:

Home-Buyer Tax Credit Proposals Compete in Senate
By COREY BOLES
WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) floated a new version of a popular home-buyer tax-credit extension, and aides say he aims to have a vote on the measure as part of the coming debate over extending federal unemployment insurance benefits. The alternative proposal would continue the $8,000 credit for four months past its current Nov. 30 expiration, and gradually phase it out after that.The value of the credit would drop by $2,000 every quarter until it halted completely by the end of 2010.

The proposal is the latest of at least three different Senate alternatives to ensure the credit doesn’t expire at the end of November.Another would increase its limit to $15,000 as well as opening it up to all home buyers, instead of just first-time buyers as is currently the case. That plan would also raise the income thresholds to allow more people to qualify for the credit.Yet another plan would simply extend the credit in its current form through June.

Lucien Salvant, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said the group believed the most generous of the three extensions, backed by Sens. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and Johnny Isakson (R., Ga.) would be the most effective in spurring home sales.”It covers the first two quarters of 2010, especially the second quarter, which is the height of the spring buying season,” Mr. Salvant said.He said home-buying activity in that three-month period could be crucial for permanently righting the housing market again.On the contrary, the Reid proposal wouldn’t be nearly as effective at stimulating home sales, Mr. Salvant said, because it would start winding down during the second quarter.

The debate comes as a Treasury auditor revealed this week that the Internal Revenue Service improperly issued millions of refunds related to the credit. At a House panel hearing this week, an IRS official said it is reviewing 100,000 returns to determine if credits were paid appropriately. Given the popularity of the credit, however, experts say the allegations are unlikely to derail the push to extend it in some form.

In the Senate, there are likely to be votes on at least one, and perhaps several different versions of the credit when the unemployment insurance benefits bill comes up for debate. That bill has been held up for more than two weeks now due to disagreement between party leaders over what amendments would be allowed votes during debate on it. As of Friday, that dispute continued. Republicans are pushing for a vote on a measure strengthening a program for employers to determine whether prospective employees are legal residents. Democrats, who don’t believe the program, called e-verify, is effective, are reluctant to allow the Republicans to attempt to attach the measure to the unemployment insurance bill. Republicans also want to bring up a variety of ways to pay for the jobless benefits extension instead of the tax on employers that Democrats would propose to pay for it. The Senate unemployment bill would extend federal jobless benefits for up to 20 weeks for long-term unemployed people.

-Jessica Holzer and Martin Vaughan contributed to this article. Write to Corey Boles at corey.boles@dowjones.com

                    22 months and counting, when will the recession end?  Some say it’s already over, some say the end of 2009 and some say in the middle to the end of 2010.  According to Dr. James Gaines, research economist at Texas A&M Real Estate Center, there is no clear answer.  He was the keynote speaker at Austin Board of Realtor’s 2009 Realty Round Up last week.  From his perspective the best case scenario would be the following:

• stock prices continue to rise
• 4th quarter corporate earnings are favorable
• consumer confidence rises with stocks
• more spending leads to more profits
• layoffs end by the end of the 2009
• “jobless recovery” in 2010, which will be followed by higher interest rates and inflation in 2010-2011.

The worst-case scenario would be:

• The securitized lending market does not reopen
• bad banks and businesses continue to be propped up
• no price discovery for “toxic” mortgages
• political risk for business stays high
• businesses and investors “sit on their hands”
• unemployment goes well over 10%
• which will lead to commodity deflation and price deflation. 

               While Dr. Gaines’ analysis of the U.S. economy was rather grim, he did point out that Texas and particularly Austin have weathered the recession quite well compared to other parts of the country.  As of August 2009, unemployment rates in Austin, Texas, and the U.S. were 7.2%, 8.0% and 9.7% respectively.  Over the past year, Austin ranked forth in Texas for employment growth at -0.9%.   Texas as a whole was at -2.8% and national employment growth was at -4.4%.  While the number of homes sold in Austin is predicted to be down 17% for 2009, the median price has only dropped 1.8% compared to the August 2008 peak.   
               Furthermore, a recent Wall Street Journal article stated that the Fed has purchased about 80% of all securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this year.  This means that nearly 8 out 10 home sales this year would not have closed without the Fed’s assistance.  The Fed has announced that they are going to begin to cut back on their purchases and phase them out all together by March 2010.  What’s going to happen then?  If the credit market doesn’t open up and private investors continue to stand on the sidelines, the Fed may continue their efforts to hold up the housing market as in Dr. Gaines’ worst-case scenario.  This is my biggest concern for homebuyers and homeowners looking to sell. 
              Although I am thankful to live in Austin, there are still many unknowns. Nobody knows how the housing market will be impacted when the Fed discontinues its stimulus efforts. We are definitely not out of the clear yet.

Our expert mortgage broker, Joe Thweatt of Land Mortgage,  just sent us an excellent summary of the Austin real estate market and a helpful link about the new homebuyer tax credit. Here is the repost:  

Below is some interesting information from the Spelce Letter regarding the strength of the Austin economy:

• Obviously, Central Texas is not alone in feeling the employment squeeze. But an analysis proves the situation in the Austin area is still the best of the nation’s 50 major metros. Job losses since a year ago are a relatively moderate -0.2%. This keeps the Austin metro as #1 in the nation, a distinction it has held all year. Neighboring San Antonio is #2 with a 12-month job loss rate of -0.8%.

• No other major metro in the nation is below the 1% benchmark. But other Texas metros are near the top, Fort Worth is #7 at -1.4% and Dallas is #8 at 1.6%. Even Houston , with a -3.1% job loss rate, ranks 18th in the Top 50 major metros. Nationally the job loss rate is -4.2% and for Texas as a whole, it is -2.1%.
• So what has buoyed Austin during this economic downturn? Government jobs. As we have pointed out since we began writing this newsletter in 1979, government payrolls have long been the economic underpinning of the Austin market. In fact, up until the high tech emergence in 1983, the Austin economy was dominated by state government and state university paychecks. Even with the subsequent diversified expansion of jobs, government payrolls are still a powerful economic force.
  According to Beverly Kerr, VP/Research for the Austin Chamber, 5,400 government jobs have been added even as goods-producing jobs have declined. There have been no notable layoffs at the state government or state university level in the Austin area. As a matter of fact, payrolls have increased in these two areas and the budgets are set for the next two years. These jobs offer a certain stability during uncertain economic times. 
• Austin has been noted as an economic front-runner in Texas , and Texas has been the leading economic light for the nation. So a look at where Texas may be headed is vital to Austin’s future. The Dallas Fed also prepares what it calls the Texas Index of Leading Indicators. As its name implies, this Index is a composite of eight indicators that tend to change direction before the overall economy does. Many look at it as a barometer of the future of the economy of the state of Texas .
•  This Index edged up 1.5% in April - its first positive reading following 11 consecutive months of declines. It was followed by an even more impressive increase of 3.8% in May and a moderate decline of less than 1% in June. 
• So what does this foretell? The authors note these recent changes in the Texas Leading Index suggest employment will bottom out during the 3rd quarter and then begin a gradual increase - leading to a mild rebound in job growth next year to about 1% to 1.5%. The reason the word “mild” was probably used is that the 30-year average for Texas job growth is 2.8%.